Where are we today?

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We have developed a robust evidence base to identify the need to transform transport across the borough.

This is drawn from local, regional and national sources, but all influences how our transport system affects the lives of people and communities across west Cheshire.

A full review of relevant policies and a robust statistical evidence base are published in detail alongside this document.

Overall, we know that west Cheshire is a thriving and attractive borough. It is a place that people want to live in, work in and visit. However, there are also some crucial challenges which our future transport system must be able to respond to. These are summarised in this section.

We need to create more inclusive societies, ensuring lack of private transport is not a barrier to accessing employment, training, health or other services and opportunities.

The borough faces a poverty emergency, with 24,000 of our residents living in neighbourhoods which are within the top 10% most deprived nationally (Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019).

Residents in some of these areas have a healthy life expectancy ten years shorter than those in less deprived areas of the borough (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2021)

These people are often at high risk of social isolation due to poor transport connectivity, with several communities ranking within the top 4% risk of transport-related social exclusion nationally (Source: Transport for the North, Transport Related Social Exclusion Mapping). 17% of households across the borough do not have access to a car or van (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2021). And we know that the cost-of-living crisis is only making these poverty challenges harder. One in three jobseekers say that poor transport connections are the biggest barrier to finding work (Source: CPRE, Every village Every hour 2021)

Additionally, over 60,000 west Cheshire residents are disabled (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2021). We know that one in five disabled people report that they are unable to travel due to a lack of appropriate transport options, creating unfair access to opportunities (Source: Motability, The Transport Accessibility Gap 2022).

We need to tackle climate change and be ready for its impacts.

Cheshire West and Chester Council has declared a climate emergency, with the aim to become a net zero Council by 2030 and a carbon neutral borough by 2045.

Between 1981 and 2020, annual mean temperatures in northwest England increased by 0.54°C. By the end of this century, maximum mean temperatures are projected to increase by 4.8°C in summer months and average precipitation is projected to increase by 26.6% in winter months. These changes in seasonal averages will also likely be punctuated by more extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts and flooding, which damage health and infrastructure, and cause disruptions across our transport system (Source: Climate Change Committee, Climate Change Risk Assessment 3 Regional Summary for England 2021).

Transport is the second-largest contributor to climate change in the borough, accounting for over 20% of total domestic emissions in 20216. The transport sector has not matched the substantial emissions reductions seen in other parts of society, with a 36.6% increase in the contribution transport has made to overall emissions since 2005. The vast majority of this are directly generated by road-based trips, particularly private cars (Source: Department for Transport, Transport Decarbonisation Plan 2021).

In addition, transport has a significant impact through the embodied carbon generated during the construction and maintenance of transport links and networks.


Graph: Domestic greenhouse gas emissions by transport mode, 2019. Adapted from Department for Transport Transport Decarbonisation Plan 2021 and Department for Energy Security and Net Zero UK Local Authority and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions National Statistics 2023 Total: 973.4 ktCO2e per annum Cars and taxis: 55.4% Heavy goods vehicles: 15.9% Light duty vehicles: 15.7% Domestic shipping: 5% Buses and coaches: 2.5% Miscellaneous: Rail 1.4% Domestic aviation 1.2% Motorcycles and mopeds 0.4% Other road transport 0.6% Other transport 1.9%

We need to create healthier, happier, greener places to live.

Our current transport system is a major contributor to poor health across west Cheshire, through poor air quality, excessive noise, low levels of physical activity, and road danger.

The borough currently has above national average levels of adult obesity and below regional average levels of physical activity amongst adults (Source: Office for Health Improvement & Disparities, Obesity profile and physical activity data). Poor air quality leads to 285 premature deaths per year across west Cheshire each year (Source: Cheshire West and Chester Council, Low Emission Strategy 2018). At least one person is killed or seriously injured on the roads of west Cheshire every week, with traffic collisions disproportionately affecting those living in deprived areas (Source: Department for Transport, Reported road casualties Great Britain: Casualties and Deprivation).

Taking a preventative approach to health by tackling these issues at source can stop people getting unwell and reduce the burden on our health services. Keeping physically active can cut the overall risk of early death by up to 30% (Source: National Health Service 2021)


We need to grow our economy, but in a sustainable manner.

There are high ambitions for clean, inclusive economic growth across the borough, but this is being held back in areas by businesses struggling to recruit due to poor accessibility. Employment levels in west Cheshire grew less than 1% between 2015 and 2021, compared to 6% across England (Source: Office for National Statistics, Business Register & Employee Survey 2021)

At the same time, all town centres in the borough have seen a significant decline in footfall and many are currently experiencing high vacancy rates. This is a national trend, linked to changing shopping habits across the country but significantly impacted on by the pandemic.

Freight transport is critical to the local economy, with particular growth perceived in small van traffic due to growing online shopping and other changes within the logistics industry. Road freight is dominant within the borough, and over 110,000,000 tonnes of freight is shipped from or arrives in the borough every year, almost exclusively via the road network (Source: Department for Transport, Great Britain Freight Model).

Contextual Factors

These challenges are all taking place against a series of important background factors, as set out below.

A fast-growing, aging population

The borough has a population of around 360,000 people (Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-2021 Population Estimates). In recent years, this has grown faster than regional and national levels, and is expected to rise to over 385,000 by 2040 (Source: Office for National Statistics, Population projections for local authorities). This will increase overall demand for travel.

In addition, the borough’s population is aging, with 21.3% of residents aged 65 or older compared to a national average of 18.5%. This ageing demographic is forecast to continue to increase until beyond 2040.

An unbalanced transport context

Car use in west Cheshire is around 10% higher than the regional average (Source: Department for Transport, National Travel Survey). Total vehicle miles driven in the borough increased by 8.1% between 2009 and 2019 (Source: Department for Transport, Road Traffic Statistics: West Cheshire) and the number of trips made by car could grow by up to 19% by 2040 (Source: Department for Transport, National Trip End Model subset data). Continued traffic growth will compound the challenges set out above and create an increasingly congested local road network.

The heaviest traffic flows are currently seen on roads around Chester, Ellesmere Port, Northwich and the key strategic routes between them, with localised queuing during peak times around these centres (Source: INRIX average data January to December 2022). Over three quarters of all traffic on west Cheshire roads is cars and taxis (Source: Department for Transport, Road Traffic Statistics: West Cheshire) and most cars are only carrying a single person. Car occupancy levels are lowest at the busiest times of the day, with 1.47 people per vehicle in the weekday morning peak hour (Source: Department for Transport, National Trip End Model subset data) .

Graph showing Proportion of traffic in Cheshire by mode (Source: Department for Transport, Road Traffic Statistics: West Cheshire) Cars and Taxis: 75.75% Vans & Light Commercial Vehicles: 15.34% Lorries and Heavy Goods Vehicles: 8.03%Other: 0.88% Infographic showing Percentage of trips taken by each mode in west Cheshire (Source: Department for Transport, National Travel Survey) Car: 76%, Walking: 18%, Bus: 3%, Train: 1.5%, Cycling: 1.4%

At the same time, use of sustainable modes of transport in the borough is low. Bus travel has been decreasing faster than the national average for years (Source: Department for Transport, Passenger journeys on local bus services by local authority data table), fuelling a downward spiral of decline and an increasingly fragile network. 71% of west Cheshire residents do not have a half hourly or greater bus service within a five-minute walking distance of their house (Source: Census 2021 and Bus Open Data Service).

The lack of early morning and late buses for shift workers across the borough is also a barrier to employment. Equally, post-pandemic, rail services continue to be impacted by driver shortages and rolling stock availability which are having a significant impact on the reliability of services nationally and locally (Source: recenttraintimes.co.uk data from February 2023 to July 2023). Levels of walking, wheeling and cycling in the borough are low, with perceived road danger and a lack of quality infrastructure quoted as key barriers to increased uptake (Source: Sustrans Walking and Cycling Index 2021: UK report).

Changing habits

The need to travel is also changing, with significant reductions in commuting, business and shopping trips since 2002 (Source: Department for Transport National Travel Survey 2023). It is likely that the main reason for most of the drops in trip making relate to the rise of online services. The proportion of borough residents working from home almost tripled between 2011 and 2021, with up to one in three people in the borough working mainly at or from home in the latest figures (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2021).

Residents in rural areas and affluent individuals are significantly more likely to work from home than those living in urban areas and those from more deprived neighbourhoods (Source: Census 2021 and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019). While working from home can offer carbon savings through reduced need to travel, these need to be balanced against additional home heating (Source: Riley, R., et al. (2021) Emissions impact of home working in Scotland).

Geographical differences

West Cheshire is neither predominantly urban nor rural. While the majority of the borough’s population live in urban areas (particularly Chester), just under one in three live in rural communities (Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid 2021 population estimates).

Rural areas are typically harder to serve by traditional public transport options and can be less suited to walking, wheeling and cycling for local trips due to greater distances between services and fewer footways and cycleways.

This creates lower levels of connectivity, negatively affecting employment, education, and leisure opportunities, and leads to higher levels of car dependency within these areas, with car use up to 12% higher than in urban areas (Source: Department for Transport National Travel Survey 2023). Rural areas tend to have a higher density of older residents, while urban areas have a higher concentration of younger residents and children (Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid 2021 population estimates).

Cross-boundary travel

We know that travel patterns are not constrained by artificial administrative boundaries, and good cross-border links via public transport and cycling are critical to support sustainable commuting patterns.

Around 39% of jobs in the borough are occupied by people living outside the borough, balanced by a similar percentage of west Cheshire residents working elsewhere (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011). Travel to work patterns show key links with the neighbouring areas of Cheshire East, Flintshire, Warrington, Wirral and Wrexham.


Growing demand, and shrinking budgets

The local government sector nationally is facing an unprecedented era of cost pressures. Some four in 10 councils are unsure or not confident they can balance their budget in 2024-25, with this increasing to six in 10 councils by 2025-26.

After planned savings are taken into account, the Council has a residual funding gap of £47.4m over the next four years (Source: Cheshire West and Chester Council, Report to Cabinet 2023).

Similarly, national government finances are stretched, particularly due to the impact of high levels of inflation.

At the same time, the Council spends approximately £7 million on highways maintenance every year. However, similarly to other authorities nationally, it is not possible to meet the full extent of demand. The maintenance backlog to bring our carriageways into a good state of repair is currently estimated at over £90 million. This network is vital for all modes of transport, including access to rail stations, and keeping it in a good state of repair is one of the Council’s most critical transport functions.

Overall, the evidence suggests that our current transport system needs to change to be fit for the future. Although the level of change needed will be challenging, doing nothing is not an option.

In this engagement, we want your help to shape our emerging vision for transport in west Cheshire and identify how the future of transport in our borough can respond to these challenges.

Click here to return to the contents page.

Click here to return to the contents page.

Click here to return to the Let's talk about Transport consultation page.

We have developed a robust evidence base to identify the need to transform transport across the borough.

This is drawn from local, regional and national sources, but all influences how our transport system affects the lives of people and communities across west Cheshire.

A full review of relevant policies and a robust statistical evidence base are published in detail alongside this document.

Overall, we know that west Cheshire is a thriving and attractive borough. It is a place that people want to live in, work in and visit. However, there are also some crucial challenges which our future transport system must be able to respond to. These are summarised in this section.

We need to create more inclusive societies, ensuring lack of private transport is not a barrier to accessing employment, training, health or other services and opportunities.

The borough faces a poverty emergency, with 24,000 of our residents living in neighbourhoods which are within the top 10% most deprived nationally (Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019).

Residents in some of these areas have a healthy life expectancy ten years shorter than those in less deprived areas of the borough (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2021)

These people are often at high risk of social isolation due to poor transport connectivity, with several communities ranking within the top 4% risk of transport-related social exclusion nationally (Source: Transport for the North, Transport Related Social Exclusion Mapping). 17% of households across the borough do not have access to a car or van (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2021). And we know that the cost-of-living crisis is only making these poverty challenges harder. One in three jobseekers say that poor transport connections are the biggest barrier to finding work (Source: CPRE, Every village Every hour 2021)

Additionally, over 60,000 west Cheshire residents are disabled (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2021). We know that one in five disabled people report that they are unable to travel due to a lack of appropriate transport options, creating unfair access to opportunities (Source: Motability, The Transport Accessibility Gap 2022).

We need to tackle climate change and be ready for its impacts.

Cheshire West and Chester Council has declared a climate emergency, with the aim to become a net zero Council by 2030 and a carbon neutral borough by 2045.

Between 1981 and 2020, annual mean temperatures in northwest England increased by 0.54°C. By the end of this century, maximum mean temperatures are projected to increase by 4.8°C in summer months and average precipitation is projected to increase by 26.6% in winter months. These changes in seasonal averages will also likely be punctuated by more extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts and flooding, which damage health and infrastructure, and cause disruptions across our transport system (Source: Climate Change Committee, Climate Change Risk Assessment 3 Regional Summary for England 2021).

Transport is the second-largest contributor to climate change in the borough, accounting for over 20% of total domestic emissions in 20216. The transport sector has not matched the substantial emissions reductions seen in other parts of society, with a 36.6% increase in the contribution transport has made to overall emissions since 2005. The vast majority of this are directly generated by road-based trips, particularly private cars (Source: Department for Transport, Transport Decarbonisation Plan 2021).

In addition, transport has a significant impact through the embodied carbon generated during the construction and maintenance of transport links and networks.


Graph: Domestic greenhouse gas emissions by transport mode, 2019. Adapted from Department for Transport Transport Decarbonisation Plan 2021 and Department for Energy Security and Net Zero UK Local Authority and Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions National Statistics 2023 Total: 973.4 ktCO2e per annum Cars and taxis: 55.4% Heavy goods vehicles: 15.9% Light duty vehicles: 15.7% Domestic shipping: 5% Buses and coaches: 2.5% Miscellaneous: Rail 1.4% Domestic aviation 1.2% Motorcycles and mopeds 0.4% Other road transport 0.6% Other transport 1.9%

We need to create healthier, happier, greener places to live.

Our current transport system is a major contributor to poor health across west Cheshire, through poor air quality, excessive noise, low levels of physical activity, and road danger.

The borough currently has above national average levels of adult obesity and below regional average levels of physical activity amongst adults (Source: Office for Health Improvement & Disparities, Obesity profile and physical activity data). Poor air quality leads to 285 premature deaths per year across west Cheshire each year (Source: Cheshire West and Chester Council, Low Emission Strategy 2018). At least one person is killed or seriously injured on the roads of west Cheshire every week, with traffic collisions disproportionately affecting those living in deprived areas (Source: Department for Transport, Reported road casualties Great Britain: Casualties and Deprivation).

Taking a preventative approach to health by tackling these issues at source can stop people getting unwell and reduce the burden on our health services. Keeping physically active can cut the overall risk of early death by up to 30% (Source: National Health Service 2021)


We need to grow our economy, but in a sustainable manner.

There are high ambitions for clean, inclusive economic growth across the borough, but this is being held back in areas by businesses struggling to recruit due to poor accessibility. Employment levels in west Cheshire grew less than 1% between 2015 and 2021, compared to 6% across England (Source: Office for National Statistics, Business Register & Employee Survey 2021)

At the same time, all town centres in the borough have seen a significant decline in footfall and many are currently experiencing high vacancy rates. This is a national trend, linked to changing shopping habits across the country but significantly impacted on by the pandemic.

Freight transport is critical to the local economy, with particular growth perceived in small van traffic due to growing online shopping and other changes within the logistics industry. Road freight is dominant within the borough, and over 110,000,000 tonnes of freight is shipped from or arrives in the borough every year, almost exclusively via the road network (Source: Department for Transport, Great Britain Freight Model).

Contextual Factors

These challenges are all taking place against a series of important background factors, as set out below.

A fast-growing, aging population

The borough has a population of around 360,000 people (Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-2021 Population Estimates). In recent years, this has grown faster than regional and national levels, and is expected to rise to over 385,000 by 2040 (Source: Office for National Statistics, Population projections for local authorities). This will increase overall demand for travel.

In addition, the borough’s population is aging, with 21.3% of residents aged 65 or older compared to a national average of 18.5%. This ageing demographic is forecast to continue to increase until beyond 2040.

An unbalanced transport context

Car use in west Cheshire is around 10% higher than the regional average (Source: Department for Transport, National Travel Survey). Total vehicle miles driven in the borough increased by 8.1% between 2009 and 2019 (Source: Department for Transport, Road Traffic Statistics: West Cheshire) and the number of trips made by car could grow by up to 19% by 2040 (Source: Department for Transport, National Trip End Model subset data). Continued traffic growth will compound the challenges set out above and create an increasingly congested local road network.

The heaviest traffic flows are currently seen on roads around Chester, Ellesmere Port, Northwich and the key strategic routes between them, with localised queuing during peak times around these centres (Source: INRIX average data January to December 2022). Over three quarters of all traffic on west Cheshire roads is cars and taxis (Source: Department for Transport, Road Traffic Statistics: West Cheshire) and most cars are only carrying a single person. Car occupancy levels are lowest at the busiest times of the day, with 1.47 people per vehicle in the weekday morning peak hour (Source: Department for Transport, National Trip End Model subset data) .

Graph showing Proportion of traffic in Cheshire by mode (Source: Department for Transport, Road Traffic Statistics: West Cheshire) Cars and Taxis: 75.75% Vans & Light Commercial Vehicles: 15.34% Lorries and Heavy Goods Vehicles: 8.03%Other: 0.88% Infographic showing Percentage of trips taken by each mode in west Cheshire (Source: Department for Transport, National Travel Survey) Car: 76%, Walking: 18%, Bus: 3%, Train: 1.5%, Cycling: 1.4%

At the same time, use of sustainable modes of transport in the borough is low. Bus travel has been decreasing faster than the national average for years (Source: Department for Transport, Passenger journeys on local bus services by local authority data table), fuelling a downward spiral of decline and an increasingly fragile network. 71% of west Cheshire residents do not have a half hourly or greater bus service within a five-minute walking distance of their house (Source: Census 2021 and Bus Open Data Service).

The lack of early morning and late buses for shift workers across the borough is also a barrier to employment. Equally, post-pandemic, rail services continue to be impacted by driver shortages and rolling stock availability which are having a significant impact on the reliability of services nationally and locally (Source: recenttraintimes.co.uk data from February 2023 to July 2023). Levels of walking, wheeling and cycling in the borough are low, with perceived road danger and a lack of quality infrastructure quoted as key barriers to increased uptake (Source: Sustrans Walking and Cycling Index 2021: UK report).

Changing habits

The need to travel is also changing, with significant reductions in commuting, business and shopping trips since 2002 (Source: Department for Transport National Travel Survey 2023). It is likely that the main reason for most of the drops in trip making relate to the rise of online services. The proportion of borough residents working from home almost tripled between 2011 and 2021, with up to one in three people in the borough working mainly at or from home in the latest figures (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2021).

Residents in rural areas and affluent individuals are significantly more likely to work from home than those living in urban areas and those from more deprived neighbourhoods (Source: Census 2021 and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019). While working from home can offer carbon savings through reduced need to travel, these need to be balanced against additional home heating (Source: Riley, R., et al. (2021) Emissions impact of home working in Scotland).

Geographical differences

West Cheshire is neither predominantly urban nor rural. While the majority of the borough’s population live in urban areas (particularly Chester), just under one in three live in rural communities (Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid 2021 population estimates).

Rural areas are typically harder to serve by traditional public transport options and can be less suited to walking, wheeling and cycling for local trips due to greater distances between services and fewer footways and cycleways.

This creates lower levels of connectivity, negatively affecting employment, education, and leisure opportunities, and leads to higher levels of car dependency within these areas, with car use up to 12% higher than in urban areas (Source: Department for Transport National Travel Survey 2023). Rural areas tend to have a higher density of older residents, while urban areas have a higher concentration of younger residents and children (Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid 2021 population estimates).

Cross-boundary travel

We know that travel patterns are not constrained by artificial administrative boundaries, and good cross-border links via public transport and cycling are critical to support sustainable commuting patterns.

Around 39% of jobs in the borough are occupied by people living outside the borough, balanced by a similar percentage of west Cheshire residents working elsewhere (Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011). Travel to work patterns show key links with the neighbouring areas of Cheshire East, Flintshire, Warrington, Wirral and Wrexham.


Growing demand, and shrinking budgets

The local government sector nationally is facing an unprecedented era of cost pressures. Some four in 10 councils are unsure or not confident they can balance their budget in 2024-25, with this increasing to six in 10 councils by 2025-26.

After planned savings are taken into account, the Council has a residual funding gap of £47.4m over the next four years (Source: Cheshire West and Chester Council, Report to Cabinet 2023).

Similarly, national government finances are stretched, particularly due to the impact of high levels of inflation.

At the same time, the Council spends approximately £7 million on highways maintenance every year. However, similarly to other authorities nationally, it is not possible to meet the full extent of demand. The maintenance backlog to bring our carriageways into a good state of repair is currently estimated at over £90 million. This network is vital for all modes of transport, including access to rail stations, and keeping it in a good state of repair is one of the Council’s most critical transport functions.

Overall, the evidence suggests that our current transport system needs to change to be fit for the future. Although the level of change needed will be challenging, doing nothing is not an option.

In this engagement, we want your help to shape our emerging vision for transport in west Cheshire and identify how the future of transport in our borough can respond to these challenges.

Click here to return to the contents page.